Painting by numbers

Dunlin again.

The final third of March, compared to mid-month, showed a continuing drop in numbers, and a bias to the west. The feeding circuit in that half of the southern Medway is a lot more open, more straightforward to work, and shorter flights; perhaps why more birds choose it? Guessing only; without any study on prey items, no way of telling.

With just the aid of a little basic computer literacy and an excel spreadsheet here's these 2016 counts compared to the same periods in the past three years:

March Dunlin nos by 10 day periods, 2013- 2016

This is how you can realise your mind plays tricks on you. Although I moved back in January 2013, I did do some self-employed work for my last employers up to the end of February, so March was my first full month back on the seawall. March 2013 I remember as colder than this year, with very many waders still in situ; if pressed I would have said I's seen greater numbers than this year. Wrong. 2016 I would have put money on as not being as high, but there you go; always check your numbers.

Clearly blocking easterlies and cooler temperatures play a big part in the onset of the main movement out to the Waddenzee.

When exactly did they go this year? For most birders that would be really nice to pinpoint. We like a clearly defined 'last date' after all. Easy when you just look for a last overwinterer, but a lot bloomin' harder with a common wintering/passage species though. Trektellen hinted at flyway movements on the 13th and 18th- the former certainly a date when I noticed a fair drop in the numbers of several wader species. The 13th was also the WeBS Core count priority date, so I suspect any counts done then/before would have reflected the winter numbers more, any counts after hint at passage underway.

There have been less than 20% of the month's opening numbers remaining during this final third, and with no way of knowing whether any are 'arrivals', it does seem fair to claim this years' main departure as around the 13th-18th March, on a par with 2013.

So, will April now bring a small but obvious movements of birds that have wintered further south along the Flyway? Something else to keep in mind on the days when the summer migrants simply aren't moving.

It's about this time of year when counts of two Dunlin
are as exciting as 2,000